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Xu Guangyu:Nuclear Transparency(8)
Time:2013-05-11 19:07         Author:Xu Guangyu         Source:军控协会,
.Draw the bow without shooting
Japan is typical of this mode. Its basic characteristics are neither a flagrant violation of the spirit of the Peace Constitution (openly or secretly developing nuclear weapons) nor subject to the limitations of the existing laws. So Japan completely abandoned its nuclear weapons. Japan goes the next best way--a clear declaration of respect for the Peace Constitution and adhering to the three principles of non-nuclear-weapon in official occasions, but in unofficial occasions Japan openly permit to publish the remarks of actively developing nuclear weapons. So the suspense that Japan may possess nuclear weapons at any time was left in the international community. This uncertainty indicates Japan’s strategic position as a potential nuclear state which can not be ignored.
For example, a few years ago, former Prime Minister Taro Aso, once said that Japan had the ability to produce nuclear weapons, but had no plan to build nuclear weapons. Both he and the then LDP policy chief Shoichi Nakagawa claimed that Japan must seriously talk about whether we should have nuclear weapons. These remarks had been subjected to criticism from all sides at that time. Coalition with the LDP, New Komeito party Akihiro Ota criticized that no matter the Government and the ruling party, people who occupy important positions talking whether to have nuclear weapons is not desirable. Nevertheless, this kind of idea lingers. Until recently, there are still many politicians and experts declaring that Japan can build a nuclear weapon within 180 days as long as lifting the ban. For the means of delivery are readily available, and Japan work closely with the United States on the anti-missile system, so it is possible that Japan will soon be able to get the dual capability of nuclear attack and nuclear shield. This kind of open reserve and follow-up of nuclear technology capability, and being ready to change from a non-nuclear state into a nuclear power in a short period of time, is likely to be imitated by some countries.
.The Prospect of Nuclear Transparency
In order to enhance mutual trust and security in the realm of nuclear, it obviously conforms to the common interests of every country to improve the present situation of nuclear transparent gradually. But concrete measures in the following aspects are required in order to achieve the goal.
.To promote the irreversible bilateral disarmament of the two nuclear superpowers (the United States and Russia)
As is known to all, the wide disparity among the nuclear powers is one of the key reasons for the general difference among countries on nuclear transparency. After a new round of Strategic Arms Reduction Talks between USA and Russia, both sides have reached an agreement to reduce their respective nuclear weapons which are on active service to 1550 gradually. Although this thousand-level is still higher than the hundred-level of those medium nuclear powers by an order of magnitude, it has been a major progress, which obviously should be enhanced further after all. If the United States and Russia and those medium nuclear powers reach to a same order of magnitude finally, the multilateral disarmament on nuclear weapons will come naturally. And gaps among countries on nuclear transparency will be greatly reduced.
.To promote multilateral nuclear talks among medium nuclear powers at the appropriate time, following up the progress of U.S. - Russia bilateral nuclear disarmament timely
In order to strengthen the global mutual trust and safety on nuclear issue, so as to promote nuclear transparency, it is necessary for the two nuclear superpowers to take the lead to reduce nuclear weapons. But those medium nuclear powers can’t escape their duties by doing nothing in the meantime. For example, those medium nuclear powers shall not increase the number of nuclear weapons when the two major nuclear powers are reducing nuclear weapons, which will create a progressive cooling atmosphere on global nuclear issue, and achieve some sort of balance for the two major nuclear powers. (军控协会)