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Xu Guangyu:Nuclear Transparency(5)
Time：2013-05-11 19:07         Author:Xu Guangyu         Source:军控协会，
 Although various factors contribute to the difference of nuclear transparency, the vital factor is the difference of country’s nuclear power, namely that is the objective difference of transverse. Two superpowers who own thousands of nuclear weapons and carriers of trinity can reach the synchronous reduction of the nuclear weapons and carriers on the condition of voluntary consultation, in order to build mutual confidence and security, to avoid of erroneous judgments which can induce mutual destruction and the alleviation of burdensome nuclear burden. In this kind of bilateral nuclear negotiation, the transparency on nuclear armament must be an operative and important prerequisite. But to the second class nuclear countries, they only have several hundreds of nuclear weapons, and their strategic environment is very harsh. Consequently, they may adopt opaque policy on the nuclear armament. Only under the condition that the two superpower achieve a great progress of mutual nuclear disarmament and their quantity of the nuclear weapons reach the same level with the nuclear countries of second group, and take the multi-lateral nuclear disarmament initiative, the difference on nuclear transparency of those countries can diminish naturally.
ⅱ.The duality of the nuclear transparency
The real purpose of the nuclear transparency is to maintain the indispensible publicity of the military and civil use of nuclear powers among those nuclear countries, and the objective is to enhance the mutual trust and nuclear safety. This goal is much easier to achieve in the area of civil use of nuclear power, but in the area of military use, the question is very complicated. Nuclear armament is the ultimate deterrence means that minor powers own in their arsenal, and is the irreplaceable strategic counter of the game between big powers. To meet the need for their own hegemony and security interests, on the one hand, the super nuclear powers hope to enhance the mutual trust and security, so as to diminish the risk of nuclear war, and to push the progress of arm control and nuclear disarmament through nuclear transparency. On the other hand, they may use the nuclear transparency to suppress other nuclear countries. They may bring symmetrical and indifferent transparency demanding to the potential rivals who are relatively disadvantaged to deprive the strategic blur of the disadvantaged part. Moreover, they may use the nuclear transparency as a deterrent force to deter their rivals and to improve their own ability of control and dominance. Therefore, the nuclear transparency not only can improve the mutual trust and security, but also can be used to suppress the opposite so the user can pursue its hegemony. This controversial duality exactly reflects complicity of the nuclear issue.
ⅲ.The changeability of the nuclear transparency
Although there are no uniform standards on the use of military nuclear, and up to now, those standards made based on the voluntariness of each country are in mutation from the historical perspective on the development of nuclear weapons. From the 40's of the last century to 1968 when the NPT came into power, the nuclear weapons of the world were at the stage of monopoly and anti-monopoly. At this stage, in order to break up the nuclear monopolization of America and to purse the nuclear balance and nuclear security, some countries made every attempt to develop their own nuclear armament secretly. As a result, the refuse of nuclear transparency was common. But from 1968, the world came into the stage of nuclear proliferation and counter-proliferation; the situation began to change gradually. More and more countries began to obtain the nuclear weapons, practically, the nuclear competition between the two super nuclear powers came into uncontrollable, and the quantity of the nuclear weapons reached tens of thousands. In order to deduct misjudgment and improving security, also to diminish the nuclear burden need to push the nuclear disarmament and the control of nuclear weapons forward, the question of nuclear transparency developed from nothing and became gradually highlighted. Because the stage two may take a long time, even thought the world has reached stage three, that is the stage of nuclear deduction and reversal, the problem of nuclear transparency still exists. But we can speculate that the difference and difficulty of the nuclear transparency will diminish gradually.
(军控协会)